A statistic is just a single point of data. On its own it tells you
nothing. How many races a horse has won is only a small part of the story. You still need to know what types of
races they were, how many total races were run, etc. When you look at statistics together, you begin to create a
metric. A metric is a system to measure or analyze the data you have. A metric tells a complete story.
The wonderful thing about horse racing is that there is so much data available to analyze. And there isn't a
single, correct metric to analyze that data. If there was, then everyone would always know which horse would
win, and there would never be any value in betting on them. Each of us takes a different approach to how we want
to interpret the data.
But this is also one of the frustrating things about horse racing - there is so much data available that it can
feel overwhelming. Even the best handicappers spend a lot of time organizing data. That's why we created
EquinEdge.
EquinEdge doesn't handicap the races for you. EquinEdge simplifies the process of poring over and organizing
all of the data so that you can skip to the fun part - applying your own metrics and telling your own story.
This number under WIN represents the probability that this horse will
win this particular race. It looks at all the data available for this horse’s past races and
workouts, as well as the data on the jockey, trainer, owner, breeder, and relative’s past races to
determine this probability. The higher the number, the better. More importantly, the bigger the gap
between two horse’s Win numbers, the more likely one will beat the other.
This is a powerful metric, and it might feel like all you really need to know. But a lot of races the
horses will have win percentages that are pretty close to each other, and you’ll need more
information to make your decision. But also, a win percentage in the thirties is often good enough to
lead the pack - but at 30% that horse is still more likely to not win that it is to win! That’s
why you’ll need to use all the EquinEdge tools available to you. This thing isn’t going to
pick winners for you. It’s giving you solid, reliable information at the press of a button, but
you still need to use your head.
Pace figures are predictions about where a horse might be at the first
quarter mile of a race. That’s useful in trying to handicap how a race will run, to help you
decide if a horse that needs to be in front is likely to get it, or if multiple horses are likely to be
in a speed duel early.
When I made my own pace figures, I had to look at the call times and then the running lines and try and
figure out who might get the lead, then factor in track variant, horses running on different tracks,
internal fractions. It was so much work; it was virtually impossible.
Our system looks at all of a horse's past performances, track variables, and even includes first
time starters! There's nothing out there like it! Pace ratings have been around for a long time, but
EquinEdge's algorithms have revolutionized the standard for accuracy, and are the industry leader,
with an average 72.5% accuracy, is the best available predictor of which horse will be leading at the
first call that you can find.
When I would use traditional past performances, I started realizing
that other than the top 3 finishers in a past race offered me no value other than the italics. I had no
idea how strong the race was.
Now everybody knows about class handicapping -looking to see if a horse is making a step up or a step
down in class. A lot of times people just look at the last race the horse ran in to see if it was for
more money or at a higher class than this race. When I used traditional past performances, I never got
much value out of seeing the top three finishers in a past race. Just seeing the italics that indicated
a horse won next time out was about all the useful info they provided, but even that didn’t tell
me anything about how strong that race really was.
But our SoR - or strength of race - metric doesn’t just look at the results of a horse’s
last race. Our metric looks at the strength of the competition of all the horses in the last five races
each horse ran to come up with a score. The higher the number, the tougher the competition. This does
NOT consider the current race, so it doesn’t know if this is a step up or down in competition from
past races. But in comparing horses in this race, the higher number means the horse faced stronger
opponents in past races than the horse with the lower number. Typically, horses who have raced against
stronger opponents than their current field should outperform their past results.
I used to spend a lot of time doing research on a horse’s bloodlines, especially with first time starters or lightly raced horses. And a lot of times I had to go digging for the information I wanted. EquinEdge gives me a single number - GSR - or Genetic Strength Rating - to represent how well three generations of that horse’s family tree has done on this same surface and distance of race. It is less useful in a field of horses with lots of past races, as the race data will be more valuable than the genetic data. But in close competition, the GSR can sometimes help differentiate similar horses.
Our Past Performance View which we call HandiView highlights the most relevant information on each of a horse’s past performances as well as past workouts. HandiView shows running lines as well as unique statistics pertinent to your race.
The trainer tab of the horse profile highlights the trainer’s win percentage over the past year as well as any changes that have been made since the last race. The jockey tab contains the jockey win percentage over the past 5 years as well as the jockey/trainer combo win percentage.
Even after all the hard work of handicapping a race is done, there is still more work - maybe even the most important work of all - figuring out how the heck to bet! I can’t tell you how many times I’ve pulled out my hair trying to figure out the right combination of horses to use or the right type of bet to make given my selections and my budget for any given race. It’s stressful, and it’s annoying to have picked the horses correctly but bet them all wrong. The Ticket Generator uses all of EquinEdge’s powerful algorithms and logical deduction to suggest optimal combinations for nearly any type of wager. You tell it your budget and the bet you want to make, and it can do the work for you, or you can program the Ticket Generator with your own opinions by eliminating or locking in horses and letting our state-of-the-art AI help you optimize your bets. The ticket generator is a lifesaver -especially when there’s only a few minutes left to post!
A statistic is just a single point of data. On its own
it tells you nothing. How many races a horse has won is only a small part of the story. You still need to
know what types of races they were, how many total races were run, etc. When you look at statistics
together, you begin to create a metric. A metric is a system to measure or analyze the data you have. A
metric tells a complete story.
The wonderful thing about horse racing is that there is so much data available to analyze. And there isn't
a single, correct metric to analyze that data. If there was, then everyone would always know which horse
would win, and there would never be any value in betting on them. Each of us takes a different approach to
how we want to interpret the data.
But this is also one of the frustrating things about horse racing - there is so much data available that it
can feel overwhelming. Even the best handicappers spend a lot of time organizing data. That's why we
created EquinEdge.
EquinEdge doesn't handicap the races for you. EquinEdge simplifies the process of pouring over and
organizing all of the data so that you can skip to the fun part - applying your own metrics and telling your
own story.
