Key points
- A speed figure scale converts a horse's final race time into a single numerical rating adjusted for track surface, distance, and daily condition.
- Higher numbers indicate faster performances on most North American scales, though lower numbers mean faster performance on sheets like Ragozin or Thoro-Graph.
- Major providers use different baseline models, meaning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure does not equal a 100 Equibase Speed Figure.
- Track variants isolate daily surface speed by comparing race times against baseline track averages for that distance.
- Raw speed figures omit pace distribution, trip trouble, and early energy expense, requiring handicappers to pair them with pace metrics.
- Modern algorithms blend speed figures with genetic ratings, trainer statistics, and track bias to produce predictive win probabilities.
A speed figure scale in horse racing is a standardized numerical system that measures how fast a horse ran in a race relative to other horses, distances, and track conditions. Instead of relying on raw clock times, a speed figure scale adjusts finish times using daily track variants so handicappers can compare performances across different tracks, distances, and race dates.
How a Speed Figure Scale Works in Horse Racing
Raw finish times rarely reveal the fastest horse. A horse running six furlongs in 1:10.0 on a firm, fast track at Saratoga might execute a weaker physical performance than a horse running six furlongs in 1:11.2 on a deep, wet surface at Pimlico.
Speed figure scales solve this problem by standardizing performance into a single number. Scale creators analyze past race data over years to establish a baseline time for every distance at every track. When a horse runs a race, the scale creator compares the final time against the track baseline.
The scale calculation follows four main steps:
- Calculate the raw time per furlong: The system converts the total running time into furlong splits and total seconds.
- Apply the distance factor: Longer races require more stamina, so scale formulas weight time differences differently at five furlongs than at a mile and a quarter.
- Determine the track variant: Statisticians compute how fast or slow the track played on that specific day by comparing all race times on the card to historical averages.
- Assign the final speed figure: The system adjusts the horse's time with the track variant to produce the final speed rating.
By normalizing these variables, speed figure scales give handicappers a reliable way to compare horses returning from long layovers or moving between tracks across North America.
Major Horse Racing Speed Figure Scales Compared
Different publishing companies and commercial services maintain their own speed figure scales. Because each provider uses distinct mathematical formulas and baseline benchmarks, the numbers do not match across systems.
Beyer Speed Figures
Andrew Beyer created Beyer Speed Figures in the 1970s, and Daily Racing Form published them commercially starting in 1992. On the Beyer scale, higher numbers reflect faster performances.
A score of 100 on the Beyer scale represents a high-quality stakes horse. Exceptional Grade 1 stakes winners often score between 105 and 118, while lower-level claiming horses typically score between 50 and 70. The scale uses points where approximately three points equal one length at distances around one mile. Handicappers often check Beyer Speed Figures to benchmark class shifts when horses move up or down in purse conditions.
Equibase Speed Figures
Equibase assigns speed figures to every race in North America, appearing in official Equibase past performance products and track program entries.
The Equibase scale uses higher numerical baselines than the Beyer scale. A typical Grade 1 stakes horse usually earns an Equibase figure between 110 and 125, while a lower-level claimer might earn between 60 and 80. Bettors who are learning reading past performances will see Equibase numbers prominently displayed in standard race program lines.
Brisnet Speed Ratings
Brisnet produces speed figures for Bloodstock Research Information Services. Their main speed ratings use a scale where 100 represents a strong stakes effort, similar in numeric range to Beyer figures.
Brisnet also provides separate ratings for early pace, middle pace, and late pace. These additional split ratings help bettors identify whether a high speed figure resulted from a fast early pace or a late closing sprint.
Numerical Benchmark Comparison Across Scales
Understanding how these scales align helps you evaluate entries regardless of which past performance sheet you use:
- Maiden Claiming ($20,000): Beyer range 50 to 65 | Equibase range 65 to 80 | Brisnet range 60 to 75
- Allowance Race: Beyer range 80 to 92 | Equibase range 92 to 104 | Brisnet range 85 to 97
- Grade 1 Stakes: Beyer range 100 to 115 | Equibase range 112 to 125 | Brisnet range 102 to 116
- World-Class Championship: Beyer range 116 to 125 | Equibase range 126 to 135 | Brisnet range 117 to 128
Reverse Scales: Ragozin and Thoro-Graph
Not every system uses a scale where higher numbers are better. Commercial performance sheet products like Ragozin Numbers and Thoro-Graph use a reverse scale where lower numbers represent faster performances.
On these sheets, zero or negative numbers represent world-record caliber performances. These specialized scales account for ground lost on turns, wind resistance, and weight carried. Sharp handicappers review Thoro-Graph sheets to trace form cycles and identify horses poised for physical improvement.
The Role of Track Variants in Speed Figures
The track variant is the most critical element of any speed figure scale. Dirt, synthetic, and turf surfaces change constantly due to weather, moisture, compaction, and maintenance routines.
If a track surface plays two seconds fast on a warm afternoon, every raw time on that card will look impressive. Without a track variant, a handicapper might overvalue a mediocre horse that simply ran on a fast highway. Conversely, if rain turns a track heavy and slow, raw times will appear weak.
To calculate an accurate track variant, scale creators analyze every race run on a single card. If every winner runs three fifths of a second slower than the track baseline for their respective class, the creator assigns a slow variant. The algorithm adds points back to each horse's raw score to adjust for the sluggish surface.
Proper variant calculation prevents bettors from misjudging horses shipping in from tracks with unusually fast or slow surfaces.
Limitations of Standalone Speed Figures
Speed figures offer clear insight into past performance, but relying exclusively on a single speed figure scale can lead to poor betting decisions.
Pace Distribution Masking
A speed figure summarizes the entire race into one final number, hiding how the horse expended energy. A horse that sets blistering early fractions before tiring late might earn the same final speed figure as a horse that sat off a slow pace and sprinted the final quarter mile. Combining final speed ratings with dedicated pace figures reveals whether a horse can handle today's expected race shape.
Trip Impact and Traffic
Standard speed figures do not adjust for wide turns, bumped starts, or checked runs in mid-stretch. A horse forced five paths wide around two turns covers far more physical ground than the rail winner. While the winner gets a higher speed figure, the wide horse may have turned in a superior physical effort.
Form Cycles and Regressions
A high speed figure tells you what a horse did in the past, not what it will do today. Horses frequently run a career-best figure and then regress in their next start due to physical fatigue. Relying solely on the highest number in the program leads bettors to buy horses at overbet, short odds right before they bounce.
Modern AI Enhancements to Speed Figures
Modern handicapping software takes traditional speed figure scales and integrates them into multi-factor algorithms.
Instead of treating a speed figure as an isolated truth, advanced platforms evaluate how speed figures measure performance alongside track condition changes, jockey switches, trainer statistics, and genetic potential.
EquinEdge processes real-time past performance data across every North American track to refine traditional figures. Key algorithmic indicators include:
- EE Win Percentage: A composite win probability metric that balances speed figures against class levels, track bias, and current form.
- Pace Metric: An automated breakdown of early and late energy distribution that predicts which horses will contest or inherit the lead.
- Genetic Strength Rating (GSR®): An evaluation of pedigree traits that forecasts how a horse will perform when shifting to new surfaces or longer distances.
By combining normalized speed figure scales with predictive AI models, handicappers replace manual line-by-line figure adjustments with data-backed betting recommendations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a good speed figure in horse racing?
A good speed figure depends entirely on the race level and the scale being used. On the Beyer scale, a figure of 80 to 90 is solid for allowance races, while figures above 100 represent top stakes contenders. On the Equibase scale, good allowance horses earn between 90 and 105, while stakes horses exceed 110.
Why do Beyer and Equibase figures differ for the same race?
Beyer and Equibase use different mathematical baselines and track variant calculations. Beyer assigns a zero point to a specific low level of claiming performance, whereas Equibase sets its baseline differently. Both scales accurately rank horses relative to their peers, but their absolute numbers cannot be matched point-for-point.
How do handicappers use a speed figure scale to find value bets?
Handicappers look for hidden speed figures where a horse earned a strong rating under unfavorable conditions, such as running on a heavy track or against a strong track bias. When the horse returns to a favorable setup at longer odds, the underlying speed figure indicates strong betting value.